Jakarta, IDM – Not only Papua New Guinea but a small island country like Vanuatu has also enticed Australia to explore potential cooperation. However, some in Vanuatu’s parliament oppose this idea, as they are concerned it could alienate relations with China. Similarly, New Zealand agrees to establish a partnership in the defense sector with Fiji. These phenomena raise the question: Why have the big countries started to eye these Pacific Island countries?
Geopolitical Competition
Fourteen countries in the South Pacific include Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Palau, Tonga, Tuvalu, Samoa, Marshall Islands, Solomon Islands, Cook Islands, Vanuatu, Micronesia, Kiribati, Nauru and Niue; historically, they are economically dependent on Australia and New Zealand. The latter two, also members of the Pacific Island Forum (PIF), formed in 1971 to advocate for common interests in the region, are main allies of the US and the UK.
However, in recent years, geopolitical tensions have escalated in the region, commencing when countries such as Palau, Tuvalu, Nauru and the Marshall Islands recognized Taiwan as a sovereign state, and established cooperation in many sectors. Previously, even more supported Taiwan, until China tempted the Solomons, Vanuatu and Kiribati with promises of investment and trade.
“China keeps increasing its role in winning influence against Taiwan in the region, providing massive economic support and establishing security cooperation with the Solomons and others. Eventually, Australia, New Zealand and the US became vexed,” said Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a senior researcher at Indonesia’s National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN).
Global geopolitical dynamics have extended to a region previously considered “less interesting”: the countries of the South Pacific. In recent times, the region has become a hotspot, as many countries have indicated they want to “embrace” those archipelagic states closer. Papua New Guinea is one of the countries eyed by the United States as a partner in defense sector cooperation.
Dewi explained that these countries were “annoyed”, as they consider the Pacific region their territory, even though the US has not paid as much attention to them as Australia and New Zealand have. China’s expanding power has raised a concern of a “rivalry” that challenges this hegemony.
Those countries are concerned that China will build military bases in Pacific Island countries. “There are concerns that China will build military bases, which will be a threat. Obviously, this will increase the anxiety level, as it is related to the traffic of US warships,” said Dewi. Therefore, the US is looking for ways to deflect China’s influence, such as by signing a new security pact with Papua New Guinea and opening an embassy in the capital of the Solomons.
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Strategic Location
Countries in the South Pacific are situated along vital shipping routes between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. Therefore, they will become strategic points, if military bases are built there to deal with possible conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region. In terms of natural resources, they might have mineral reserves and other marine resources of interest to outsiders.
These considerations impelled the US to finally agree to establish defense cooperation with Papua New Guinea, through Prime Minister James Marape, in addition to an attempt to undercut China’s influence. “Papua New Guinea is quite strategic; countries even fought over it during World War II. It is also one of the largest, compared to other countries. Regarding its land area, it could easily allow the US to build a base,” added Dewi.
Constructive Competition
Every conflict of interest will bring along both positive and negative impacts. The Pacific Island countries are aware of their strategic position in the region. They also welcome cooperative relations with other countries.
According to Dewi, geopolitical competition is not without its risks. If a conflict occurs in the future, those small nations will be greatly affected. Despite this unfavorable risk, they have decided to exploit the situation, one that can deliver benefits to their countries.
Dewi believes that the boon of this competition is that those Pacific Island countries have more options, as they no longer need to depend on a single bene-factor country. Dependence on one side will only lead to “dictation”. These small countries will be forced to follow the policies of those with greater power.
“Rivalry and competition for influence will yield benefits as possibilities emerge. Therefore, they won’t need to depend on just one or two powers. The more options they have, the more countries are interested, the more advantageous it will be, as long as they can manage the competition. What they must emphasize is not to be completely drawn onto one side,” warned Dewi.
This geopolitical competition will eventually benefit the small island states because they will have greater bargaining power to serve their respective interests.
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Internal Interests
Generally speaking, to benefit from geopolitical competition means to take strategic steps that can help realize domestic interest. However, the main reason these small countries welcome more cooperation is not due to traditional security or war and peace but because they are concerned about rising sea levels, an issue which they have expressed explicitly. As reported on the official website of the Pacific Island Forum (PIF) in “The 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent”, they highlighted the impact of climate change in addition to progressively intense geopolitical competition, which increases the region’s vulnerability.
“We occupy a vitally significant place in global strategic terms. As a consequence, heightened geopolitical competition impacts our Member countries. Our region continues to face significant challenges, including the impacts of climate change, slow economic growth and significant ocean and land-based environmental degradation.” wrote PIF.
Through this strategy, one of their commitments is to increase cooperation to deal with such key issues. Dewi believes that those island countries expect countries with greater power to contribute to realizing non-traditional security in the region.
“So far, their concern has been internal, not about traditional security. Rising sea levels and climate change issues threaten their existence. One thing they expect from these big countries is how they can help protect the environment and make their economies more sustainable. Partnership in development is what matters most for them,” said Dewi.
Indonesia as the Main Driver of ASEAN-Pacific Cooperation
Indonesia is also devoting special attention to the Pacific Island nations, especially when it chaired the 2023 ASEAN Summit in early September. At the event, Foreign Affairs Minister Retno Marsudi highlighted the importance of strengthening ASEAN relations with countries in the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
“Countries in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean are an inseparable part of the Indo-Pacific region. We share the same area. Whatever happens in this region will affect us all,” said Retno, quoted from the Foreign Affairs Ministry’s official website.
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As a result, ASEAN established a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with PIF and the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) focusing on sustainable development goals, maritime, blue economy and disaster management. According to Retno, this cooperation is necessary to maintain peace and protect the region from turning into an arena showcasing rivalry between the great powers.
After signing the agreement, Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown, who is also chairman of the PIF, met Indonesian President Joko Widodo to declare his appreciation for Indonesia’s efforts in bringing ASEAN closer to the Pacific. “The Prime Minister of the Cook Islands expressed his congratulations and appreciation to Indonesia, because it has been a key driver in bringing ASEAN closer to the Pacific,” said Retno.
Indonesia’s geographical and demographic profiles are the main reasons why Indonesia is able to become the main driver of ASEAN cooperation with PIF. This is because Indonesia has a similarity, having a territory consisting of a strategic group of islands in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. Truth be told, Indonesia can also claim to be a Pacific nation, because part of its population is Melanesian.
“The Melanesian people and separatism issue in West Papua are reasons why Indonesia has a direct interest in embracing the Pacific Island countries. So, it would be ideal if Indonesia becomes a main driver in encouraging PIF collaboration with ASEAN,” said Dewi. Furthermore, the collaboration opens up opportunities for Pacific Island countries. They now have more options in striving not to be overly dependent on one or two powers.
“ASEAN can open up opportunities for cooperation with many parties and avoid the risk of being dominated by big powers. PIF’s collaboration with ASEAN is expected to give these island nations encouragement, that they are relevant, not ignored, and can participate in various forums held by ASEAN,” said Dewi. (Bunga Permata)