Jakarta, IDM – However, there are other factors that Indonesia must heed to strengthen its position in the regional and global arena. Muhammad Fauzan Malufti, defense analyst at Semar Sentinel, said that this factor arises not only externally (such as conflicts in other countries) but also internally from government itself. Fauzan is of the view that Indonesian leaders must have more knowledge with regard to defense, including being able to conduct diplomacy with many parties in pursuit of the national interest.
What are the geopolitical dynamics and challenges facing Indonesia? The following is an excerpt of the Indonesia Defense Magazine’s (IDM) conversation with Fauzan.
What is your assessment of current geopolitical and geostrategic situations?
Since last year, the geopolitical situations have actually become more unstable, especially in Easter Europe due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which began last year and in the Middle East recently after hostilities broke out between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza strip. Meanwhile, in our immediate region the Indo-Pacific, especially in the South China Sea, the last few months have seen tensions growing between the Philippines and China.
How have these situations impacted Indonesia?
There are direct and indirect impacts, economically and socially. We can see nowadays there are intense debate among the Indonesian citizens on what is happening in Gaza. Particularly among the defense and security establishment, these battles can and must be reflected upon by the Indonesian Defense Ministry (Kemhan), the National Armed Forces (TNI) and relevant institutions on how modern warfare is fought. Modern warfare does not only occur on the ground, such as those in Ukraine and Gaza, but has come to encompassed intense information or propaganda war. So, that’s perhaps one of the takeaways.
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The indirect impact is an increase in defense spending globally because countries are becoming jittery over the increasingly volatile and unpredictable geopolitics brought about by conflicts and tensions on multiple fronts. This subsequently prompts them to ramp up defense budget.
As a result, there has been a queue for arms procurement worldwide and the global shortage of equipment. Many weapons have been used in battle, and as other countries increased their spending, arms production struggle to catch up and the queue becomes longer.
Indonesia currently still relies heavily on imported major equipment. If there is no acceleration in military procurement, it is likely that it will take longer for Indonesia to receive the delivery of certain types of equipment, for example, the Rafale fighter jets ordered by Kemhan. According to its manufacturer Dassault Aviation, there was a backlog of 86 aircrafts. In December 2022, this nearly doubled to 164.
As geopolitical dynamics evolve, countries around the world, including Indonesia, are striving to increase defense and security capabilities to create a deterrent. One of such efforts is through the modernization of defense equipment, which continued to be promoted during the leadership of Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto.
How should Indonesia use its influence to play the role as a geopolitical bridge?
There are two ways a country can exert its influence, namely through hard power, using military force or economic sanctions, or soft power using its culture, democratic values and other non-coercive measures. I think both should be increased. This will allow Indonesia to further strengthen its stature on the global stage and expand its influence on some transnational issues, although this influence cannot be built within just a decade. Moreover, if we talk about the conflict between Israel and Hamas, the former will only listen to the US or perhaps several European and Middle Eastern countries, especially those that are close to them. The point is that it will only heed certain countries because they are in close geographic proximity or because their soft and hard power, in this context, is much stronger than Indonesia.
Soft power is also intricately linked to diplomacy. Has Indonesia played significant roles in current geopolitical dynamics, especially as far as Israel-Hamas conflict is concerned?
In my opinion, it is already quite significant, in the sense that we can see how the Indonesian public really supports the Palestinian cause through social media or demonstrations like the one in Monas (National Monument) recently. We also sent humanitarian assistance by plane, and there is also a plan to dispatch a hospital ship as well as other forms of support like the scholarships for 22 Palestinian students to enrol at the Indonesian Defense University (Unhan). I think these steps are quite impactful. Since most of Gaza’s infrastructure, including schools and universities, have been damaged by Israel’s attacks the Palestinian people certainly need this kind of assistance.
What are the biggest challenges that Indonesia’s future leaders will face, especially in the defense sector? The internal challenge is how to increase the defense budget, because first it must align with the country’s financial capacity. Next, will the new president have the full support of the House of Representatives (DPR)?
Then, how to justify a significant increase in the defense budget because the defense budget allocation should ideally be 1.5 percent of GDP. However, currently it is only 0.6 to 0.8 percent, meaning the increase will be more or less double. How to convince the public that the defense budget will be used properly? These are some of the challenges faced by the future president. Meanwhile, external challenges include the shift in geopolitics and ongoing conflicts, as well as potential open conflicts that may break out in the Indo-Pacific. These must be vigilantly heeded.
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How should Indonesian future leaders cope with these challenges?
Future leaders, including the president, vice president and ministers, are expected to be knowledgeable and attentive to defense, security and foreign policy. They should also possess good public communication skills because they need to convince not only the Indonesian public, but also the international community.
This is because doubling the defense budget will also create a security dilemma. Neighboring countries will anxiously ask why Indonesia suddenly increased its defense budget significantly. So, the diplomatic ability to convince them is also crucial. This also relates to how we can lobby foreign countries to sell their weapons to us, especially if the queue is already long. Moreover, we also want to build an indigenous military-industrial complex. This means we also need to seek strategic partners who are willing to transfer the key technologies to Indonesia.
Another important quality is the leaders must be willing to coordinate and not be egocentric. Sectoral ego is no longer relevant and must be abandoned. Every institution must realize that they cannot work alone. Even if they think they can, Indonesia will be much stronger if all ministries or agencies can collaborate and synergize among themselves. Moreover, we are talking about the defense industry which is closely linked to foreign policy and military policy, because they are the end users. It is also related to the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas) and the Finance Ministry which manage the budget, up to the SOE Ministry because our defense industry is organizationally under its purview.